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An Adoring Legacy

December 15, 2020 4 comments

As I stated in a previous post, one of the goals I’d like to accomplish before being violently escorted off the stage by the dastardly EOAM is to help family, friends, and readers become rich. Well, um, perhaps? This is another post intended to nudge my homies in that direction with the aid of…….. Bitcoin, once again.

The figure below shows the generic S-curve template that accurately models successful new technology adoption. As the new technology (think Bitcoin) gains traction and steals market share from an older, noble but inferior technology (think gold), the early adopters/investors reap the most benefits and the laggards (think stubborn goldbugs like Peter “cuff links” Schiff), the least. It makes sense in a capitalist society that the early risk-takers with more skin in the game are highly rewarded. They have a higher risk of getting rekt if the technology fails to gain traction, never makes it past the “knee” of the S-curve, and returns to the big goose egg.

The next figure shows many specific examples of successful technology adoptions. They all follow the classic S-curve template but the time interval from early-to-laggard acceptance varies quite a bit. It took the telephone 60 years to achieve 80% penetration into the home whereas it took the microwave only 15 years to achieve the same encroachment. The steeper the slope past the knee of the curve, the greater the reward is over a shorter amount of time. The ideal slope is infinity, “…to the moon Alice”.

Yet another graph below shows the latest brazen attempt by the insecure BD00 to look bigly smart. He’s overlaid the current Bitcoin market position on its S-curve assault on the gold market.

So, how did the fake genius BD00 concoct the 3.5% market penetration position? Follow the assumptions, check out the result, and make sure you kindly read the blue note:

To be even more delusionally obsessed, let’s take a look at the approximate market caps for some major monetary asset classes:

If you believe the new kid in town, that Bastard-Bitcoin-Badger, can nestle in with this elitist cartel and gouge out trillions of inflated value as a hedge against a major collapse of these fiat-based assets, then its market value may climb to $50T+, which would jack the Bitcoin price up to $2.85M/BTC. <— WTF?

For reference, let’s look at what my man, god’s third son after Jesus and Satoshi, PlanB, forecasts in his elegant S2FX model below. He’s got BTC cutting the cord at $1M and stepping up just after the next “halvening” occurs in 2024.

That’s enough cray cray for this post, and don’t forget that….

Oh, and there’s just one more thing. I felt the need to rage about this abomination…..

Categories: Cancer Tags: ,

The Spock Line

December 10, 2020 3 comments

I most likely now have fewer positive thoughts than You. I most likely now have many more negative thoughts than You. I most likely now cross the Spock line at a much higher frequency than you. I now experience an indescribably horrid, shivering, existential crisis from 8-10 AM on an almost daily basis. I now know why they started asking questions about depression on each visit to the cancer center.

That’s it, that’s the post.

Categories: Cancer Tags:

Badass Baked Bulldozer

December 2, 2020 2 comments

I staggered with new swagger this morning into my home-away-from-home, the Hematology-Oncology-Associates cancer treatment center. My new swagger is a stylish black mask brandishing a big fat Bitcoin logo covering my schnoz and pie hole.

At the check-in desk I was asked what the “B” meant. I said “badass”. She chuckled. On my way to plop my ass down in a comfy chemo chair I was asked again what the “B” meant. I said “baked” (which I was). Two people chuckled. While in the chair getting juiced with my savior, Opdivo, a third person asked me what the “B” was. I said “bulldozer zero zero”. She asked why the “zero zero”. I said “bulldozer” and “bulldozer zero” were already taken. She chuckled. On my way out yet another person asked what the “B” meant. I answered “badass baked bulldozer” and he looked at me like I was nutz, which I am. I don’t know why I shared this, but I did.

Categories: Cancer Tags:

An Uncorrelated Asset

November 22, 2020 6 comments

Bitcoin is on yet another volatile, but upward, trajectory. My friends and family insufferably know that I’m a bitcoin champion because of my incessant preaching to them about the virtues of personally-secure money. They also know I’m a long time lover-of-bitcoin, not a skanky shitcoin shill who popped up out of nowhere overnight.

BD00 In Vietnam Tryin’ to out-love the “me so hawny”chick.

I’ve seen smart people describe bitcoin as an “uncorrelated” asset for quite some time now. Until very recently I thought it strange of them to say that. I look up the price of BTC daily and it seems qualitatively clear to me that bitcoin is positively correlated to the S&P 500 index. Every time the index goes up, BTC seems to go up. Every time the index goes down, BTC goes down.

Fidelity Research helped me understand why calling bitcoin an “uncorrelated” asset is quantitatively correct. The effort of Ria Bhutoria (Director of Research at Fidelity Digital Assets) dotted an “i” and crossed a “t” in my previously infallible mental model of the emerging role of bitcoin in the world. I snipped the following elegant table from her latest thesis (“Bitcoin’s Role As An Alternative Asset“) to record the correlation coefficients between the top financial assets in the world.

The first column clearly shows that bitcoin, like honey badger, don’t care about what other assets do. Unlike any of the other listed assets, none of bitcoin’s correlation coefficients cross the .2 threshold. Interestingly, bitcoin is less correlated to its biggest competitor, gold, than it is to stocks.

An uncorrelated asset like bitcoin is the best hedge against a global financial system crash that deflates the value of all other assets except for, perhaps, gold. But there’s no need to worry about that, right?

Honey Badger Don’t Give A Fuck!

Categories: Cancer Tags: ,

The Thing

November 12, 2020 4 comments

At last month’s MRI follow up with my neurosurgeon, my sky high stress level was instantaneously deflated when he said “no change“. Specifically, there was no progression or regression in the sizes of those three fugly tumors in my brain.

Since I knew at the time that my next chest/abdomen/pelvis CT scan was scheduled for this month, my stress levels started ramping up once again in a parabolic frenzy (just like Bitcoin’s price action). ๐Ÿ™‚

This morning I had the follow up with my primary oncologist to review the results of the CT scan I had yesterday. My stress level was instantaneously deflated once again when he said “no change” just like my neurosurgeon did last month. Also, similarly, there was no progression or regression in the sizes of the four fugly tumors in my right lung.ย 

The Emperor Of All Maladies hates the phrase “no change“. That means his blood thirsty orc soldiers are still being held at bay by my ex$pen$iveย  savior, Opdivo.

My beloved wonder drug has also kept the EOAM frozen in a virtual block of ice like that monstrous abomination in John Carpenter’s “The Thing“.

So, all is well inside my mind for now my dear readers. My stress level has returned to its baseline value of “phew!”, and the slope of my stress-vs-time curve has been reset to zero. It’s time for the groundhog day cycle to restart: wash, rinse, repeat.

Categories: Cancer

A Double Dose Of Joy

November 7, 2020 2 comments

Today is a great day! To celebrate another glorious 24 hours above ground, Iโ€™ve prepped a mid afternoon snack for Morrie and me. A pair of tasty pork rinds for my beautiful boy and a double dose of anti-anxiety meds for dad.

Categories: Cancer Tags: ,

Port, Package, And Handles

October 29, 2020 Leave a comment

The โ€œbodyโ€ functionality of the Amazon Halo fitness band is its creepiest and most personally invasive feature. It beats the โ€œtoneโ€ feature (which BD00 calls the โ€œasshole detectorโ€) hands down in the goose bumps department.

To use the โ€œbodyโ€ featureโ€™s โ€œare you a fat ass?โ€ assessment tool, you must take four selfies: front, back, left profile, and right profile. For the Halo assessor to do an accurate analysis, you should ideally get buck naked and expose all of your junk. The results are then shown on a “fat ass” scale ranging from โ€œcancer toothpickโ€ to โ€œhuge fat assโ€.

Haloโ€™s user guide boasts that the “body” feature’s photo processing algorithm produces percent body fat results that are twice as accurate as a home smart scale.

To give you more insight into what Halo’s built in pervert wants to see and the results it generates, I present to you BD00โ€™s most recent frontal selfie in all its glory:

Notice that, to be polite, Halo doesnโ€™t label the segments on the โ€œfat assโ€ scale with descriptive text.

The result shows that Halo has judged me to be, in BD00โ€™s proprietary terminology, a โ€œfat assโ€. Well hey, at least I’m not a โ€œhuge fat assโ€, and I doubt Iโ€™ll ever become one. That’s because the emperor has involuntarily forced me onto his EOAM death diet until my expiration date arrives.

Hereโ€™s a morbid closing thought for preponderance: Halo gives me the power to track my impending journey toward the โ€œcancer toothpickโ€ edge of the scale as long as Iโ€™m physically able to periodically take the four selfie prerequisites. It reminds me of the Christian Bale character’s transformation in โ€œThe Machinistโ€, except that he doesnโ€™t have stage 4 lung cancer.

Categories: Cancer Tags: , ,

A Temporary Reprieve

October 19, 2020 1 comment

Here I go again. It’s scan-fuckin’-xiety time. I have my tri-monthly brain MRI and neurosurgeon follow up appointment tomorrow. I concocted the following feel-good graphic to take my mind off of this upcoming traumatic event.

 

The tactic worked for about a half hour. Now I’m stuck back in the psychological thought storm of worrying about how I’ll feel when I leave the doctor’s office. ๐Ÿ˜ฆ

 

Categories: Cancer

It’s Hip To Be Square

October 10, 2020 Leave a comment

A couple of posts ago, I presented the fact that Microstrategy Inc. (MSTR) was the first major company to publicly disclose a big bux investment in Bitcoin. After CEO Michael Saylor said he felt the company was sitting on a “melting ice cube” of $500M in cash due to negative real rates of return on cash for the foreseeable future, the company bought $425M worth of Bitcoin to serve as a Store Of Value (SOV).

Well, I just discovered that Square Inc. (SQ) recently bought $50M worth of Bitcoin too. Unlike Microstrategy, which is a well established, stable, mediocre (but cash rich) company, Square is a high growth company in the digital payments space. It was co-founded in 2009 by well known and highly regarded Twitter founder Jack Dorsey. Square has been trading as a public company since 2015 and they’ve been participating in the Bitcoin economic space with their CashApp since 2018.

Note that in the graphic above, SQ has employed the increasingly credible strategy of investing 1% of its assets in Bitcoin. They, like many others, have been slowly discovering that the risk-reward ratio of buying bitcoin is way better than any physical asset on earth. There is no man behind the curtain, Bitcoin is legit. Its purposely builtin features clearly and objectively show that it is a superior SOV to gold or anything else.

When I heard the good SQ-Bitcoin news, I started humming an oldie but goodie tune that quickly nestled into my tumor-tainted brain. The song’s title applies so well here in 2020, but Huey Lewis sang it best back in 2009…. IT’S HIP TO BE SQUARE! It’s been fuckin’ stuck in my head for days.

 

 

Square’s stock is trading near its all time high. One of my rules of investing is to never buy shares in a stock that is at an all time high. Thus, I’ve placed a limit buy order on Square:

 

If the buy order doesn’t execute in 60 days, I’ll have to reassess the situation…. if I’m not sick or I haven’t died yet. ๐Ÿ™‚

Categories: bitcoin, business Tags:

Quite The Ballsy Move, No?

September 26, 2020 1 comment

As I waited for my midday dose of gabapentin, a dab of Australian Dream topical cream, and a pot brownie to coalesce and hose down the latest spontaneous fiery combustion in my feet, something kept popping into my head over and over: the incredulous move into Bitcoin that Microstrategy Inc. CEO Michael Saylor recently made. I decided to conjure up this post to further take my mind off of my feet. It sucks to involuntarily spend a lot of time thinking of my feet. ๐Ÿ™‚

Most people in the Bitcoin community were pleasantly blindsided when Mr. Saylor announced the company’s investment of $425M of its cash reserves in Bitcoin. Quite the ballsy move, no?

Mr. Saylor hasn’t always been a long time Bitcoin bull. In fact, he said in 2013 that Bitcoin’s days were numbered. However, when he kept seeing treasury yields sinking with no end in sight and inflation hiding right around the corner, he realized he was sitting on a pile of cash that was losing its purchasing power.

Prior to the Microstrategy announcement, the Bitcoin community thinking was that the next tier of incoming Bitcoin investors would be comprised of big money investment institutions like Vanguard, Fidelity, Pension funds, hedge funds, etc. No one thought that cash rich companies would start using Bitcoin as a better store of value and hedge against inflation than the old warhorse, gold.

Since Microstrategy is directly invested in Bitcoin, all of the company’s shareholders are indirectly invested. They now have a stake in the little engine that could. Here’s a snippet describing the stake of one of those shareholders….

And here is a tidy little table showing the BTC exposure of two other major Microstrategy shareholders…

Even if you’re currently not a true believer in Bitcoin’s future role as a groundbreaking, new, global monetary asset, you would do well to contemplate investing something like 1% of your savings in Bitcoin. After 11 straight years of bulletproof, 24 X 7, operation (no banker’s hours in Bitcoinlandia!), Bitcoin (unlike all the johhny-come-lately shitcoins) has earned some real “street cred” in the minds of some of the world’s best investment advisers. The possibility of a 20X return before the next halving (approx. 4 years) takes place blows away every other investment opportunity on the planet.

I already own some Bitcoin outright, but I decided to show my appreciation for Mr. Saylor’s ballsy move by purchasing some stock in his company. I’ve got the receipts to prove it but I’ll never tell how many shares I bought. ๐Ÿ™‚

 

Categories: bitcoin
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