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Why No Bitcoin Moon?

Anybody who knows me knows that I’m a Bitcoin whacko. I’m a true “maximalist” who won’t shut up once I start preaching about the arguably most important discovery in human history since fire. But I must admit, the latest price crash from $70k —> $16k was a mind-numbing whopper that nobody, and I mean nobody, famous in the space saw coming. Oh sure, the on-chain analysts and technicians always mention that crashes should be expected from time to time from the juvenile, highly volatile, asset class. Until the crash, technical data showed price volatility decreasing with Bitcoin’s increasing age as more people shed their fear of it and slowly learned of its huge, impending, worldwide importance.

I experienced the $20k —> $3k crash back in 2017, but that crash wasn’t as puzzling or scary as this one. That crash was from irrational exuberance, and Bitcoin was still under the radar of the establishment big guns.

The biggest contributor to the crash of 22 was due to Bitcoin being (wrongly) valuated by the market as a risk-on asset like a tech company with a high “P” but no “E”, as opposed to the risk-off asset it truly embodies, like gold or other commodities. And of course, another contributor to the crash was that a bunch centralized schittcoins scams and fake crypto banks got (and are still getting) rekt; bringing down the whole craptoverse and the honorable Bitcoin with them.

Besides the crash, which is explainable, there’s one other thing that troubles me. It’s about the slow uptake of Bitcoin around the world in these unprecedented inflationary times. This eye-popping inflation chart from economist Steve Henke shows how badly the corrupt and incompetent governments of nations around the world are debasing their currencies.

Are people who are lucky enough to earn more than they spend in these countries “stacking sats“? Why wouldn’t they exchange their excess fiat income into Bitcoin ASAP so it doesn’t lose half its value virtually overnight? There are a lot of countries in that table, so there’s got to be a lot of fiat value capable of jumping out of fiat hell and into Bitcoin paradise. I conclude that if people were moving value into Bitcoin en-masse in these inflation-battered nations, then the crash maybe wouldn’t have happened at all and we’d be halfway to the moon by now.

But wait, it gets worse! As the chart below shows, virtually every country on earth has been printing fiat like maniacs, even the so-called advanced countries – the enemy is us! This could portend a large wall of value flowing into Bitcoin and a giant pop in price soon if everyone personally experiences the Bitcoin epiphany simultaneously, out of desperation from watching in horror as their wealth melts away. It could be like Ray Kurzweil’s Singularity.

Via continuing education, I think the world will eventually realize Bitcoin’s role as the greatest Store Of Value technology ever discovered. It’s just gonna take longer than I would expect because of all the headwinds going against it, or maybe it won’t. I don’t know schitt.

Categories: Cancer
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