An Uncorrelated Asset

November 22, 2020 Leave a comment

Bitcoin is on yet another volatile, but upward, trajectory. My friends and family insufferably know that I’m a bitcoin champion because of my incessant preaching to them about the virtues of personally-secure money. They also know I’m a long time lover-of-bitcoin, not a skanky shitcoin shill who popped up out of nowhere overnight.

BD00 In Vietnam Tryin’ to out-love the “me so hawny”chick.

I’ve seen smart people describe bitcoin as an “uncorrelated” asset for quite some time now. Until very recently I thought it strange of them to say that. I look up the price of BTC daily and it seems qualitatively clear to me that bitcoin is positively correlated to the S&P 500 index. Every time the index goes up, BTC seems to go up. Every time the index goes down, BTC goes down.

Fidelity Research helped me understand why calling bitcoin an “uncorrelated” asset is quantitatively correct. The effort of Ria Bhutoria (Director of Research at Fidelity Digital Assets) dotted an “i” and crossed a “t” in my previously infallible mental model of the emerging role of bitcoin in the world. I snipped the following elegant table from her latest thesis (“Bitcoin’s Role As An Alternative Asset“) to record the correlation coefficients between the top financial assets in the world.

The first column clearly shows that bitcoin, like honey badger, don’t care about what other assets do. Unlike any of the other listed assets, none of bitcoin’s correlation coefficients cross the .2 threshold. Interestingly, bitcoin is less correlated to its biggest competitor, gold, than it is to stocks.

An uncorrelated asset like bitcoin is the best hedge against a global financial system crash that deflates the value of all other assets except for, perhaps, gold. But there’s no need to worry about that, right?

Honey Badger Don’t Give A Fuck!

Categories: Cancer Tags: ,

The Thing

November 12, 2020 3 comments

At last month’s MRI follow up with my neurosurgeon, my sky high stress level was instantaneously deflated when he said “no change“. Specifically, there was no progression or regression in the sizes of those three fugly tumors in my brain.

Since I knew at the time that my next chest/abdomen/pelvis CT scan was scheduled for this month, my stress levels started ramping up once again in a parabolic frenzy (just like Bitcoin’s price action). πŸ™‚

This morning I had the follow up with my primary oncologist to review the results of the CT scan I had yesterday. My stress level was instantaneously deflated once again when he said “no change” just like my neurosurgeon did last month. Also, similarly, there was no progression or regression in the sizes of the four fugly tumors in my right lung.Β 

The Emperor Of All Maladies hates the phrase “no change“. That means his blood thirsty orc soldiers are still being held at bay by my ex$pen$iveΒ  savior, Opdivo.

My beloved wonder drug has also kept the EOAM frozen in a virtual block of ice like that monstrous abomination in John Carpenter’s “The Thing“.

So, all is well inside my mind for now my dear readers. My stress level has returned to its baseline value of “phew!”, and the slope of my stress-vs-time curve has been reset to zero. It’s time for the groundhog day cycle to restart: wash, rinse, repeat.

Categories: Cancer

A Double Dose Of Joy

November 7, 2020 2 comments

Today is a great day! To celebrate another glorious 24 hours above ground, I’ve prepped a mid afternoon snack for Morrie and me. A pair of tasty pork rinds for my beautiful boy and a double dose of anti-anxiety meds for dad.

Categories: Cancer Tags: ,

Port, Package, And Handles

October 29, 2020 Leave a comment

The β€œbody” functionality of the Amazon Halo fitness band is its creepiest and most personally invasive feature. It beats the β€œtone” feature (which BD00 calls the β€œasshole detector”) hands down in the goose bumps department.

To use the β€œbody” feature’s β€œare you a fat ass?” assessment tool, you must take four selfies: front, back, left profile, and right profile. For the Halo assessor to do an accurate analysis, you should ideally get buck naked and expose all of your junk. The results are then shown on a “fat ass” scale ranging from β€œcancer toothpick” to β€œhuge fat ass”.

Halo’s user guide boasts that the “body” feature’s photo processing algorithm produces percent body fat results that are twice as accurate as a home smart scale.

To give you more insight into what Halo’s built in pervert wants to see and the results it generates, I present to you BD00’s most recent frontal selfie in all its glory:

Notice that, to be polite, Halo doesn’t label the segments on the β€œfat ass” scale with descriptive text.

The result shows that Halo has judged me to be, in BD00’s proprietary terminology, a β€œfat ass”. Well hey, at least I’m not a β€œhuge fat ass”, and I doubt I’ll ever become one. That’s because the emperor has involuntarily forced me onto his EOAM death diet until my expiration date arrives.

Here’s a morbid closing thought for preponderance: Halo gives me the power to track my impending journey toward the β€œcancer toothpick” edge of the scale as long as I’m physically able to periodically take the four selfie prerequisites. It reminds me of the Christian Bale character’s transformation in β€œThe Machinist”, except that he doesn’t have stage 4 lung cancer.

Categories: Cancer Tags: , ,

A Temporary Reprieve

October 19, 2020 1 comment

Here I go again. It’s scan-fuckin’-xiety time. I have my tri-monthly brain MRI and neurosurgeon follow up appointment tomorrow. I concocted the following feel-good graphic to take my mind off of this upcoming traumatic event.

 

The tactic worked for about a half hour. Now I’m stuck back in the psychological thought storm of worrying about how I’ll feel when I leave the doctor’s office. 😦

 

Categories: Cancer

It’s Hip To Be Square

October 10, 2020 Leave a comment

A couple of posts ago, I presented the fact that Microstrategy Inc. (MSTR) was the first major company to publicly disclose a big bux investment in Bitcoin. After CEO Michael Saylor said he felt the company was sitting on a “melting ice cube” of $500M in cash due to negative real rates of return on cash for the foreseeable future, the company bought $425M worth of Bitcoin to serve as a Store Of Value (SOV).

Well, I just discovered that Square Inc. (SQ) recently bought $50M worth of Bitcoin too. Unlike Microstrategy, which is a well established, stable, mediocre (but cash rich) company, Square is a high growth company in the digital payments space. It was co-founded in 2009 by well known and highly regarded Twitter founder Jack Dorsey. Square has been trading as a public company since 2015 and they’ve been participating in the Bitcoin economic space with their CashApp since 2018.

Note that in the graphic above, SQ has employed the increasingly credible strategy of investing 1% of its assets in Bitcoin. They, like many others, have been slowly discovering that the risk-reward ratio of buying bitcoin is way better than any physical asset on earth. There is no man behind the curtain, Bitcoin is legit. Its purposely builtin features clearly and objectively show that it is a superior SOV to gold or anything else.

When I heard the good SQ-Bitcoin news, I started humming an oldie but goodie tune that quickly nestled into my tumor-tainted brain. The song’s title applies so well here in 2020, but Huey Lewis sang it best back in 2009…. IT’S HIP TO BE SQUARE! It’s been fuckin’ stuck in my head for days.

 

 

Square’s stock is trading near its all time high. One of my rules of investing is to never buy shares in a stock that is at an all time high. Thus, I’ve placed a limit buy order on Square:

 

If the buy order doesn’t execute in 60 days, I’ll have to reassess the situation…. if I’m not sick or I haven’t died yet. πŸ™‚

Categories: bitcoin, business Tags:

Quite The Ballsy Move, No?

September 26, 2020 1 comment

As I waited for my midday dose of gabapentin, a dab of Australian Dream topical cream, and a pot brownie to coalesce and hose down the latest spontaneous fiery combustion in my feet, something kept popping into my head over and over: the incredulous move into Bitcoin that Microstrategy Inc. CEO Michael Saylor recently made. I decided to conjure up this post to further take my mind off of my feet. It sucks to involuntarily spend a lot of time thinking of my feet. πŸ™‚

Most people in the Bitcoin community were pleasantly blindsided when Mr. Saylor announced the company’s investment of $425M of its cash reserves in Bitcoin. Quite the ballsy move, no?

Mr. Saylor hasn’t always been a long time Bitcoin bull. In fact, he said in 2013 that Bitcoin’s days were numbered. However, when he kept seeing treasury yields sinking with no end in sight and inflation hiding right around the corner, he realized he was sitting on a pile of cash that was losing its purchasing power.

Prior to the Microstrategy announcement, the Bitcoin community thinking was that the next tier of incoming Bitcoin investors would be comprised of big money investment institutions like Vanguard, Fidelity, Pension funds, hedge funds, etc. No one thought that cash rich companies would start using Bitcoin as a better store of value and hedge against inflation than the old warhorse, gold.

Since Microstrategy is directly invested in Bitcoin, all of the company’s shareholders are indirectly invested. They now have a stake in the little engine that could. Here’s a snippet describing the stake of one of those shareholders….

And here is a tidy little table showing the BTC exposure of two other major Microstrategy shareholders…

Even if you’re currently not a true believer in Bitcoin’s future role as a groundbreaking, new, global monetary asset, you would do well to contemplate investing something like 1% of your savings in Bitcoin. After 11 straight years of bulletproof, 24 X 7, operation (no banker’s hours in Bitcoinlandia!), Bitcoin (unlike all the johhny-come-lately shitcoins) has earned some real “street cred” in the minds of some of the world’s best investment advisers. The possibility of a 20X return before the next halving (approx. 4 years) takes place blows away every other investment opportunity on the planet.

I already own some Bitcoin outright, but I decided to show my appreciation for Mr. Saylor’s ballsy move by purchasing some stock in his company. I’ve got the receipts to prove it but I’ll never tell how many shares I bought. πŸ™‚

 

Categories: bitcoin

The Third Thing

September 13, 2020 2 comments

There are 3 things I’d like to accomplish before the emperor drags me off to the bespoke tailor shop to get fitted for my dirt suit.

 

Here are those 3 things:

  1. Ensure that my wife doesn’t have to worry about finances for the rest of her days.
  2. Tell a joke in the seconds preceding the exact moment at which the universal life force ceases to animate my mind and body.
  3. Help my readers get rich so that they’ll remember me long after I’m used as a body double on “Weekend At Bernie’s 2“.

 

 

After 40 years of diligently saving and investing (instead of recklessly borrowing and spending), I’m pretty confident that I’ve got thing number 1 covered. Regarding thing number 2, there’s not much I can do until D-Day arrives other than picking out an appropriate, short, one-liner joke and memorizing it. Got any suggestions for my death bed joke? πŸ™‚ The fewer the words the better. Please post it in the comments section.

This post is an attempt to address thing number 3. As you might have guessed, the content has to do with the greatest financial innovation of all time, Bitcoin. Bitcoin is the first unforgeable, fixed-supply, digital commodity that the world has ever seen. Only 21 million Bitcoin will ever be mined from the magical unknown. Approximately 18M of those Bitcoin have already been unearthed to date and the last Bitcoin will be electronically hatched in the year 2140.

According to PlanB’s Stock-2-Flow (S2F) model, Bitcoin’s price will cross the $250K threshold sometime within the next 4 years and violently oscillate around it until the next halving event sometime in 2024. With the current price at approximately $10K, that’s a monstrous 25X return in 4 years.

Of course, S2F is only a model and it might be wrong. However, as you can see from the graph below, eleven years of real Bitcoin price data (colored points) fit the S2F model (discontinuous white line) pretty snugly.

 

The total market value of Bitcoin is currently close to $200B. However, to achieve a 25X return, the market capitalization needs to rise to $5T. WTF!!!!!!! For reference, the total market capitalization of gold is around $10T.

One of the most common questions people ask about the outrageously optimistic S2F model is

Where the hell is the additional $4.8T in market cap gonna come from?

The figure below shows the types of current and future Bitcoin investors along with their entry points on the parabolic road toward a $5T valuation.

 

At first, only hardcore computer geeks owned and transacted in Bitcoin in 2009. Next, more and more individual retail investors arrived on the scene and propelled the market cap to the $200B where we are now. The big money will come from “woke” institutional investors who discover how perfectly Bitcoin serves as a coveted store of value monetary asset. The humongous money will come from forward-thinking government treasuries that supplement their gold reserves with Bitcoin as another hedge against severe economic distress.

Evidence is trickling in showing that some big institutional investment firms and hedge funds are either prepping to buy, or are buying, Bitcoin. Here is a sample of these woke institutions:

 

So, there it is. It’s my latest attempt to accomplish goal number 3 by nudging readers to invest in bitcoin as the world’s next greatest store of value.

Categories: bitcoin, Cancer

Tracking Trends

August 31, 2020 Leave a comment

In preparation for future skyrocketing and skydiving Bitcoin price trends, I’ve purchased a cute little WiFi crypto ticker device from Etsy.com. I can now track the wild, bucking bronco cryptocurrency in near real-time without having to pick up my phone or computer.

 

As you can see from my artfully staged photo shoot above, I’ve strategically placed my ticker tape device on my “convalescent” table. It sits surrounded by my wrist blood pressure meter, my Australian Dream topical foot cream, my synthroid/gabapentin meds, my ceiling fan control, and my beloved Glide dental floss. What more could a stage 4 cancer patient want?

The only problem is that the damn thing doesn’t fuckin’ work!

 

Categories: bitcoin

Dog Poop-Like Substance

August 25, 2020 Leave a comment

I try to walk, or more like, waddle, around the block every day. On those days when I feel too lightheaded, and/or my right leg feels like I’m dragging around a 200 lb cement post attached to my hip, and/or my feet feel like they’re on fire, I decide not to attempt the penguin march. I never thought I’d be saying this at my young age, but I don’t want to risk a fall and an associated trip to the dreaded, high cost, high latency, emergency room.

Since today was one of those no-waddle days, I decided to infuse some coconut oil with some cannabis flower. When I finished my wicked act of alchemy, I didn’t throw the plant residue away like I usually do. I had recently read somewhere that the leftover dog poop-like substance is still rich with cannabinoids.

As the pic below shows, the quick thinking innovator in me decided to stir the pile o’ poop into a big cup of coffee. After I finished the slightly-sandy, yet nutty-tasting, coffee, it occurred to me to write this post in real-time to capture the experience for all eternity. πŸ™‚

 

Categories: Cancer, Cannabis
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