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The Third Thing

September 13, 2020 2 comments

There are 3 things I’d like to accomplish before the emperor drags me off to the bespoke tailor shop to get fitted for my dirt suit.

 

Here are those 3 things:

  1. Ensure that my wife doesn’t have to worry about finances for the rest of her days.
  2. Tell a joke in the seconds preceding the exact moment at which the universal life force ceases to animate my mind and body.
  3. Help my readers get rich so that they’ll remember me long after I’m used as a body double on “Weekend At Bernie’s 2“.

 

 

After 40 years of diligently saving and investing (instead of recklessly borrowing and spending), I’m pretty confident that I’ve got thing number 1 covered. Regarding thing number 2, there’s not much I can do until D-Day arrives other than picking out an appropriate, short, one-liner joke and memorizing it. Got any suggestions for my death bed joke? 🙂 The fewer the words the better. Please post it in the comments section.

This post is an attempt to address thing number 3. As you might have guessed, the content has to do with the greatest financial innovation of all time, Bitcoin. Bitcoin is the first unforgeable, fixed-supply, digital commodity that the world has ever seen. Only 21 million Bitcoin will ever be mined from the magical unknown. Approximately 18M of those Bitcoin have already been unearthed to date and the last Bitcoin will be electronically hatched in the year 2140.

According to PlanB’s Stock-2-Flow (S2F) model, Bitcoin’s price will cross the $250K threshold sometime within the next 4 years and violently oscillate around it until the next halving event sometime in 2024. With the current price at approximately $10K, that’s a monstrous 25X return in 4 years.

Of course, S2F is only a model and it might be wrong. However, as you can see from the graph below, eleven years of real Bitcoin price data (colored points) fit the S2F model (discontinuous white line) pretty snugly.

 

The total market value of Bitcoin is currently close to $200B. However, to achieve a 25X return, the market capitalization needs to rise to $5T. WTF!!!!!!! For reference, the total market capitalization of gold is around $10T.

One of the most common questions people ask about the outrageously optimistic S2F model is

Where the hell is the additional $4.8T in market cap gonna come from?

The figure below shows the types of current and future Bitcoin investors along with their entry points on the parabolic road toward a $5T valuation.

 

At first, only hardcore computer geeks owned and transacted in Bitcoin in 2009. Next, more and more individual retail investors arrived on the scene and propelled the market cap to the $200B where we are now. The big money will come from “woke” institutional investors who discover how perfectly Bitcoin serves as a coveted store of value monetary asset. The humongous money will come from forward-thinking government treasuries that supplement their gold reserves with Bitcoin as another hedge against severe economic distress.

Evidence is trickling in showing that some big institutional investment firms and hedge funds are either prepping to buy, or are buying, Bitcoin. Here is a sample of these woke institutions:

 

So, there it is. It’s my latest attempt to accomplish goal number 3 by nudging readers to invest in bitcoin as the world’s next greatest store of value.

Categories: bitcoin, Cancer

Tracking Trends

August 31, 2020 Leave a comment

In preparation for future skyrocketing and skydiving Bitcoin price trends, I’ve purchased a cute little WiFi crypto ticker device from Etsy.com. I can now track the wild, bucking bronco cryptocurrency in near real-time without having to pick up my phone or computer.

 

As you can see from my artfully staged photo shoot above, I’ve strategically placed my ticker tape device on my “convalescent” table. It sits surrounded by my wrist blood pressure meter, my Australian Dream topical foot cream, my synthroid/gabapentin meds, my ceiling fan control, and my beloved Glide dental floss. What more could a stage 4 cancer patient want?

The only problem is that the damn thing doesn’t fuckin’ work!

 

Categories: bitcoin

Scarcity Drives Price?

I’m gonna temporarily veer away from blabbing on about cancer and sickness and death. For this post, since I know I have a handful of Bitcoin (BTC) readers, I’m going to write about an exciting development in the Bitcoin space. I hope my fellow “sat stackers” will correct me if I’m factually wrong in what I say below.

The Rise Of PlanB

Ever since the $20K peak in BTC price in 2017, the Bitcoin space has been pretty much boring and uneventful. However, in March of last year, an unknown, soft-spoken, humble, dutch financial quant, whose handle on Twitter is PlanB@100trillionUSD, released an innovative paper titled “Modeling Bitcoin Value with Scarcity“.

Ever since its release, the paper has been gaining more and more traction in the BTC community and PlanB is being slowly elevated to celebrity status. His genius is that he pursued a novel approach to modelling Bitcoin’s price action over the last decade. His open, rigorously scrutable model is based on quantifying Bitcoin’s price in terms of its scarcity. Monthly price data from the first 11 years of Bitcoin’s existence fits PlanB’s simple, but elegant, model nicely.

The reason for all the increasing buzz in the Bitcoin community is that the first version of PlanB’s model (S2F) predicts a price of around $55K within the next four years. The second version of the model (S2FX) updates that prediction to $288K!

Lots of smart people have been trying to tear down the model but no one can (as far as I can tell) mathematically disprove his theory and analysis. Mind you, PlanB has said many times himself, it’s just a model, and as George Box once said: “All models are wrong. Some, however, are useful”. PlanB cautions that even though the real price data from 2009->2019 fits his model closely, the model could breakdown and fail at future predictions.

The Data And The Model

The figure below shows the real bitcoin monthly price data as a time series (colored dots) superimposed on what PlanB’s S2FX model (disjoint white line) predicts. Note that the Y axis is logarithmic in order to cover the large range in price appreciation over the years.

Of huge importance to PlanB’s scarcity model are the Bitcoin “halving” events that occur by design approximately every 4 years. During each abrupt discontinuity, the “flow” of BTC rewards to the miners that keep the BTC network secure is cut in half, thereby increasing Bitcoin’s Stock(pile)-To-Flow (S2F) ratio by a factor of 2. The hypothesis underlying the model is that the higher the S2F ratio of any commodity, the higher its price.

Stocks, Flows, And Producers

In my next post, health willing, I will try to understand and explain stock(piles), flows, commodity pricing (gold, silver, copper, oil, pork bellies, etc), and the quantification of perhaps Bitcoin’s greatest price-driving attribute: scarcity.

Categories: bitcoin

Tah dah!

December 17, 2019 6 comments

Wow, I just saw that my last post on this preposterous blog was published on my birthday, October 10. So, in case you were wondering….. Tah dah! I’m still alive. LOL! I’m working on another post titled “How Will They Know?“. Double-LOL!

The good news is that two of the big four of my cancer complications, dizziness and “head-ringing“, have subsided to the point where I’m not aware that they’re constantly lurking in the background and chomping at the bit to muscle their way into the forefront of my consciousness. The bad news is that the other two complications, right-leg-numbness and, especially, “Feet on Fire” (FoF), have gotten worse.

In order to keep up with the deterioration in my poor feet, I kept upping my dosage of gabapentin to combat the worsening pain until I hit the ceiling of 600 mg X 3 per day. The drug didn’t seem to be working anymore so I decided (with doctor approval) to start backing down on the dosage to see if my FoF would get worse again. The rationale was that I’d rather not be taking a drug if it’s not working. Of course, when I cut the dose in half, my FoF did get worse. I was pretty much dead in the water for a week because of the foot pain. This most recent “flare up” has subsided a bit, but the progression is at the point where there now is always some fire-like pain in both of my feet. Tis what it is.

The next thing I’m going to try in my fight against seemingly worsening FoF is alpha lipoic acid. It’s an over-the-counter supplement recommended by one of my cancer group therapy friends. I got the Ok from my pain management doctor and I’ve been taking 650 mg per day for about a week now. So far, sigh, I haven’t noticed any improvement.

As the graphic below shows, the progression from taken-for-granted,”normal“, feet to the FoF state is an additive process. You may not believe this, but as I write this my feet are numb, tingly, and painful all at once. I don’t know if I can do anything to permanently regress back to the numbness + tingling state but I’ll keep trying new meds/supplements/topicals as I become aware of them.

On the bright side, I met a new internet friend, Kiara Bickers. Kiara stumbled upon this irreverent blog while searching for information on “systems thinking“, which is a fascinating subject near-and-dear to my heart. Kiara sent me a hard copy of her upcoming book, “Bitcoin Clarity“.  I haven’t finished it yet but I can tell you that Kiara’s writing style is very endearing. It feels like you know her personally and she’s sitting right next to you trying to painstakingly and patiently explain an almost inexplicable topic to newbies – Bitcoin.  Go pre-order your kindle copy now. 🙂

 

 

Categories: bitcoin, Cancer

Rocket Ship To The Moon!

June 24, 2019 4 comments

Since I probably don’t have too much time left on earth and since I own some Bitcoin and since it just recently re-crossed the $10k threshold, I decided to reward myself with some new Bitcoin swag.

So, off I went to Etsy.com to browse the 10 bazillion pages they have with Bitcoin stuff on them. Lo and behold, I found a genuine replica of the Bitcoin rocket ship to the moon. All aboard!

If you want to get one of these innovative and creative products, go visit Emma and Josh at GeekySexToys on Etsy. They’re Aussies, so by definition they’re really nice.

Oh, and if after seeing the rocket ship you “can’t” buy one for some reason, you could be more discrete and get one of these instead….

Or yet again, you could get a commemorative “wine bottle cork” 😉

Categories: bitcoin

Uplifting Reading Material

Look at the uplifting reading material that I was given when I recently visited a pain management doctor…

Whoo hoo! My favorite pamphlet is the middle one because of what it says at the top, and the fact that all the people are smiling: “Let’s talk about the impending doom that will soon be upon you”.

Community-wide End-of-Life/Palliative Care Initiative

Yikes!

On a more “uplifting” but unrelated note, check out the new Bitcoin hat I bought from Etsy.com…

It’s much nicer than my older hat (see below) because, as one of my dear radar-nerd friends says: “It’s got more vertical aperture“. I hate hats that are so lacking in vertical aperture that you can’t see what it says when you put it on your head. 🙂

Categories: bitcoin, Cancer

An Unlikely Duo

August 30, 2018 Leave a comment

In a pseudo-creative twist on my “Wardrobe Addition” post, I decided to reposition the faux jewelry I wear on my wrists to illustrate what two topics are of utmost importance to me these days.

I can picture people who see this for the first time saying to themselves….

Damn, that bloke has some bitcoin AND cancer? I hope he’s still around when bitcoin hits $100,000/BTC.

Oh, in case you were wondering what the hell the Fitbit is doing in the picture, it was there already and I was too lazy to take it off.

Categories: bitcoin, Cancer

Unprecedented

November 29, 2017 Leave a comment

In one year, Bitcoin has risen 10X. An incredible, unprecedented event in the history of investment. A substantial price pullback seems in the cards, but the world has never seen a financial innovation like Bitcoin.

Categories: bitcoin

The State Of Bitcoin

May 23, 2017 2 comments

Well, that’s all fine and dandy for us bitcoiners. What most people that have recently “seen the light” don’t know is that the brutal scaling war going on behind the scenes can tear the price in half (at least) in the near future.

Categories: bitcoin

Bitcoin Echo Chambers

Categories: bitcoin
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