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Pick Your Path

Make a measurement, one measurement, of any personal metric you might fancy… right now. Next, plot your sample point on a graph where time is the independent variable on the x-axis:

One Sample

Next, even though you most likely have no prior measurements to plot, reflect on the path that got you to “now“. You’re likely to concoct a smooth, logical, linear narrative like this:


However, because of our propensity to be, as Nassim Taleb says, easily “fooled by randomness“, you’re most likely to have traveled one of the ragged, noisy paths plotted on this graph:


Because of the malady of linear-think, you’re most likely to envision the future as a continued journey on the smooth, forward projection of your made-up narrative. Good luck with that.



  1. Rainee
    August 8, 2014 at 1:12 am

    I saw something similar on Facebook the other day. If I can find it again I will send it to you 🙂

  2. Rainee
    August 8, 2014 at 3:39 am

    This is it – not sure if the link is complete though!

    • August 8, 2014 at 4:29 am

      That is awesome. The graphic on that page blows this post away. Thanks for the link.

      • Rainee
        August 8, 2014 at 8:30 am

        Glad you liked it 🙂

  3. August 8, 2014 at 6:56 am

    Reblogged this on thinkpurpose and commented:
    Binary Comparisons, mistaking noise for signal and the futility of silly straight lines on graphs.
    A vg blog post from Bulldozer.

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