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An Adoring Legacy

As I stated in a previous post, one of the goals I’d like to accomplish before being violently escorted off the stage by the dastardly EOAM is to help family, friends, and readers become rich. Well, um, perhaps? This is another post intended to nudge my homies in that direction with the aid of…….. Bitcoin, once again.

The figure below shows the generic S-curve template that accurately models successful new technology adoption. As the new technology (think Bitcoin) gains traction and steals market share from an older, noble but inferior technology (think gold), the early adopters/investors reap the most benefits and the laggards (think stubborn goldbugs like Peter “cuff links” Schiff), the least. It makes sense in a capitalist society that the early risk-takers with more skin in the game are highly rewarded. They have a higher risk of getting rekt if the technology fails to gain traction, never makes it past the “knee” of the S-curve, and returns to the big goose egg.

The next figure shows many specific examples of successful technology adoptions. They all follow the classic S-curve template but the time interval from early-to-laggard acceptance varies quite a bit. It took the telephone 60 years to achieve 80% penetration into the home whereas it took the microwave only 15 years to achieve the same encroachment. The steeper the slope past the knee of the curve, the greater the reward is over a shorter amount of time. The ideal slope is infinity, “…to the moon Alice”.

Yet another graph below shows the latest brazen attempt by the insecure BD00 to look bigly smart. He’s overlaid the current Bitcoin market position on its S-curve assault on the gold market.

So, how did the fake genius BD00 concoct the 3.5% market penetration position? Follow the assumptions, check out the result, and make sure you kindly read the blue note:

To be even more delusionally obsessed, let’s take a look at the approximate market caps for some major monetary asset classes:

If you believe the new kid in town, that Bastard-Bitcoin-Badger, can nestle in with this elitist cartel and gouge out trillions of inflated value as a hedge against a major collapse of these fiat-based assets, then its market value may climb to $50T+, which would jack the Bitcoin price up to $2.85M/BTC. <— WTF?

For reference, let’s look at what my man, god’s third son after Jesus and Satoshi, PlanB, forecasts in his elegant S2FX model below. He’s got BTC cutting the cord at $1M and stepping up just after the next “halvening” occurs in 2024.

That’s enough cray cray for this post, and don’t forget that….

Oh, and there’s just one more thing. I felt the need to rage about this abomination…..

Categories: Cancer Tags: ,
  1. Craig P
    December 20, 2020 at 11:24 am

    OK Tony, I agree that digital currency is the wave of the future, but how do we know which variety will succeed? Will a government (China, EU, USA?) see the light and issue their own digital currenc(ies)? Are other competing digital currencies viable? What’s the best way to invest in digital currencies? ETFs?

    Bitcoin had made a big move the past year. It’s it ready to scale to and beyond $100K?

    Will it outperform emerging small caps, digitizing marketplaces (e.g., Alibaba)?

    Where do you buy bitcoin? PayPal?

    P.S. Glad to see you posting. Have a Merry Christmas and wishing you the best in the coming year.

    • December 21, 2020 at 10:47 am

      Hi Craig,

      Great questions. I think Bitcoin and maybe ethereum will succeed. The rest of the altcoins will for all practical purposes, die because most of them have a central point of failure, and hence are easily “corruptible”. Bitcoin has the first mover Lindy network effect advantage, 11 years of rock solid, 24 X 7 operation, and the hash power keeping the network secure blows away the closest competitor. Every altcoin, also known as shitcoin, is in the rear view mirror as bitcoin rightfully zooms ahead.

      Governments for sure will create their own “centralized” crytpo currency, but it won’t make a dent in the bitcoin market because they’ll print crypto like crazy like they do with fiat. Venezuela tried it with their “petro”, LOL.

      There are currently no ETFs that I know of, but companies are applying to create them with the SEC.The easiest way to buy bitcoin is to buy shares in companies that hold BTC directly: Microstrategy, Square Inc, Paypal. The best way to buy bitcoin is to create an account at an exchange like Coinbase or Kraken, buy some bitcoin, and then take possession of it directly by transferring it offsite to your own SW or HW wallet. The saying is “not your keys, not your bitcoin”. You can buy BTC on PayPal, but you can’t take direct possession of it like you can with an exchange.

      I think Apple is the largest market share company at $2T. If you agree that BTC mar ket share will rise to >$10T, then it will outperform AAPL in the long run. Bitcoin is a world-wide phenomenon. If there is a big fiat crash, then all fiat instruments like stocks and bonds and real estate will crash too. Bitcoin and gold are hedges against catastrophe – the fear of which accounts for much of BTC’s rise today. People are moving value from fiat assets to bitcoin & gold because of all the wreckless money printing going on all over the world.

      My answer to your scaling question is “yes” ๐Ÿ™‚ I think $100K by the end of 2021 and $500k by the start of the next supply “halving” in 2024. As always, the price will be volatile, but less and less as its market share rises.

      If you have more questions, fire away. It helps to keep my deteriorating mental state in focus. ๐Ÿ˜‰

      Merry Xmas to you and your family too Craig! Hoe Hoe Hoe!

  2. Craig P
    December 24, 2020 at 10:42 am

    Thanks Tony. Good info. You obviously have been watching this very closely. I just took a bath on BABA today, LOL, but still think it will be back up as soon as Jack Ma sorts out his differences with the Chinese government – and delisting woes. Perhaps a buying opportunity? I think I am in deep enough for now.

    My worries about Bitcoin are around when to buy. It just had a big move upward. Is it due for a correction before goin back up, or is it at the beginning of a big move. BABA has shown how flyers can quickly get whacked in this market!

    Not much snow in Syracuse this year. Looks like Erie and Buffalo are due for a Christmas dump. 41″ in Binghamton! Wow.

    Happy Christmas Eve. 2020 almost in the rear view mirror!

    Craig

    • December 24, 2020 at 4:07 pm

      Iโ€™m sorry to hear about Alibaba and Jack Ma. Iโ€™ve been following the story. All he needs to do is bribe some commies and heโ€™ll be back on track ๐Ÿ˜‚

      Gotta watch this clip of Michael Saylor ๐Ÿ‘‡

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